Clarification On Results

Hello,

I have had a valid question re the results, considering two horses that were sent off at bigger than 14/1 are recorded as winners.

As I have explained previously (but possibly not clearly) I record results to available prices around 10am in the morning, using BOG bookies. I use Bet365, SkyBet, Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill to determine if a horse is a qualifier. Very rarely is it unclear at this time, with most horses clearly 14/1 or under across the board…or with enough 16/1+ to be a non qualifier at that time. Only once since launch has a horse contracted from a non-qualifying price at 10am to be sent off at 14/1 or under. (it lost) (Where possible I advise tracking those horses hovering around 14/1, especially if racing later in the evening, but i know this is not always possible. There will no doubt be a horse that contracts after 10am and wins at some point in the future)

I do this because in my opinion for any system to work for recreational punters (many of whom work) it is not practical or fair to record results solely on their starting price, whereby you would have to track the price until right before the off to determine whether they qualify- especially for those on the border. In saying that the trainers should  be profitable to Betfair SP (when 14/1 or under ISP) because that is a price everyone can get. Taking Best Odds Guaranteed, as you can see from the results, is much better that BFSP however.

By recording results based on prices available at around 10am that means we back horses that do drift. You will see from the results, and the notes to the right, that these horses are recorded as qualifiers.(with a note saying ‘late drift’) These are horses that I have backed and should be recorded as such. There have been 22 drifters, and before the two recent winners, they were showing a loss of 20 points. I have said previously that these will even themselves out over time and following the two ‘winners’,  horses sent off over 14/1 are now +14 points. However, we/I will back many more drifters before the year is out and this will even itself out. These horses were recorded as winners because they were 14/1 or under at around 10am, across those bookmakers above.

I will continue to record results in this way. Come the end of the year it will be very transparent as to the profit/loss from such selections and the difference these make to overall results.

***

Provided I can adjust the membership system (should be no problem at all) I plan to extend your membership until the end of 2015, given the poor start and the fact I think this approach is best judged over the calendar year. I will then review 2015 and, depending on results etc, make a decision whether or not to re launch in its current form at some point in 2016.

***

Josh

 

Flat Profiles 2015 Discount

Hello,

I am conscious that those of you on my normal email list will be aware that I am launching a new service today Flat Profiles 2015.

I am also acutely aware that as an OTT subscriber we are all in loss at the moment, in what has been a disappointing few months to date. I still have every faith in this approach and still back every qualifier £20 on the nose . While we are only a few decent winners away from profit (I am aware I have been saying that for a while!) it has of course been a disappointing few months. However, I will not be judging its performance until the end of the subscription period in November. I remain confident that it will be a profitable service.

However, having said that the jury is quite rightly out, both on this service and on me.

If you haven’t seen the information about Flat Profiles 2015 you can read all about it, and watch a video HERE 

As a recognition that OTT has performed poorly so far I am offering OTT subscribers a discount.

If you click the link above you will see that the full service, including the 147 Horse Profiles and access to the daily email service is priced up at £97.

For those of you who would like to join, and there is a 30 day money back guarantee, you can in effect have access to the email service for free. (Worth £40).

As such the cost to get the profiles and join the email service will cost you £57.

If you would like to try this (please watch the video etc first) then you can join at this discounted rate HERE 

I hope you do not take this message the wrong way and hope it is at least some recognition of performance so far.

As I have said I am still confident we will make decent profits and on average the trainers are only -2 points down each for 2015 so far, and they did have a profitable 2014 in line with expectations.

Anyway, thanks for your time. If you would like to try the new profiling service, which is a very different way to betting on horses that OTT, then head to this discount link HERE

All the best

Josh

Lincoln Trends

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Lincoln

Trends/Stats/Trainers

  • 10/18 Top 4 LTO
    • No strong trends on finishing position. The other 8 winners finished 6th– 27th LTO,
  • 18/18 40/1 or under
    • 0/58. 3 places 50/1 or above
  • 17/18 aged 4-6
    • 7+: 1/62, 13 places
  • 17/18 carried 9-5 or less
    • 1/38, 7 places, carried more
  • 18/18 rated 86 or above
    • 0/43, 5 places, rated below this
  • 6/18 favourites (inc joint) have won, from 21 runners. 10 have won or placed. +12 ISP
  • 18/18 came from two rest patterns-
    • 4/47, 12 places, ran 8-15 days ago
    • 14/222, 44 places, ran 121-365 days ago
    • 0/130 runners, 16 places all others
  • 16/18 had never ran over further than 11.5f furlongs in career
    • 2/69, 10 places had ran over 12f or further previously
    • 0/15, 1 place, had yet to run over 8f

Other Stats

  • 1/66, 12 places, had more than 1 run in previous 90 days
  • 0/45, 10 places, had 7 or more career wins to their name
    • 8/73 runners had 3 career wins, 15 places. (44% winners, from 18% runners)
    • 14/18 had between 2-4 career wins. (78% winners, 51% runners)
      • 2/32, 6 places, had yet to win
    • Only 2/93, 19 places, had 4 or more handicap wins to their name
    • 17/18 were running in the same class as LTO, or up just 1 class.
      • Drop in class from LTO: 1/52, 8 places
      • Up 2 or more: 0/20, 0 places
    • 16/18 had between 4-10 runs in the previous 365 days (232 runners, 52 places)
      • 11+ : 1/112, 14 places
      • 0-3: 1/61, 6 places
    • Unfuwain, as dam stallion, has sired 2 of the last 4 winners, Sweet Lightening and Ocean Tempest. (2/3, 3 places) Just one of those things no doubt but he is the only sire or dam sire with more than 1 winner to their name.
    • 16/18 ran in a C2 or C3 LTO, admittedly from ¾ of all runners
      • 1/52, 8 places, ran in C1 LTO
      • 0/20, 0 places ran in C4 or below
    • Track LTO. Of interest
      • Doncaster 0/29, 1 place
      • Kempton 0/14, 3 places
      • Lingfield 2/46, 8 places
      • Newmarket Rowley 6/71, 13 places
      • Wolverhampton 3/82, 14 places
    • 17/18 ran in a handicap LTO
      • 1/101 runners, 13 places, did not

Trainers

Of Interest-

  • Channon 0/11, 1 place
  • P F I Cole 3/8, 3 places
  • Easterby 0/9, 0 places
  • Easterby 0/7, 0 places
  • Fahey 1/28, 9 places
  • Haggas 2/5, 3 places
  • Nicholls 0/23, 0 places
  • JJ Quinn 2/9, 3 places
  • Ryan 0/11, 0 places
  • Stoute 1/3, 1 place
  • M Tompkins 2/9, 4 places

****

That’s much more like it (but still some way to go)

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Slowly turning the corner…

After what has been an awful start for OneTrackTrainers I hope the start to 2015 has restored some confidence, although there is still a long way to go.

I haven’t blogged on here for a while, mainly because there hasn’t been anything new to say. I am sure you would all get easily bored of my usual mantra of keeping confidence and that the place strike rate demonstrated that things would turn around at some point. In truth I thought I would just wait for the green shoots of recovery, to use that awful phrase, to emerge.

The results for 2015 have been much more like it and are hopefully a sign of things to come. So far there have been 32 selections, (as of the morning 06/02/15) 8 winners and a further 8 horses placing second or third. This 25% win strike rate and 50% win and place strike rate is much more near the levels that history suggests we should be expecting. 2015 has so far been worth +13 points using BOG bookies. There have been a few notable second place finishers as well. Scrafton just stopped when about to win, very strange finish indeed. Lilly Waugh should have won in my opinion at 5/1 and Salmon Sushi lost in an agonising photo by a nose, at 15/2. I don’t moan about such things as everything evens itself out but with a bit more luck moving forward we should be in a much stronger position.

While we are still showing a loss of 16 points it is much better than the low of -35 points that faced us at one stage.  However if 2015 continues as it has started, and hopefully gets even better, then we can look forward to a profitable year. We of course haven’t had any or many selections from some of our most profitable trainers, many of whom focus on the Flat.

Anyway, this is just really to say thanks for seeing the big picture and hopefully your faith continues to be rewarded. I have no doubt, as ever, that this service will make decent profits and I expect it to be an enjoyable 2015. Of course the sooner we get into actual profit the better.

Josh

Betfred Classic Chase

Betfred Classic Chase: 3.35 Warwick

Selections

Carruthers 8/1 1 point win

Hawkes Point 14/1 1 point win

Trends: Previous 12 renewals

  • 8/12 Finished top 3 LTO; further 3 either fell or were pulled up
  • 1/12 Carried more than 11-7 to victory, 22 horses have tried, 1 success
  • Age: Nothing much to go on, winners at all ages from 7-12. 7/8yo – 5/12 from 49 runners. 7 other winners 9+ came from 108 runners.
  • 9/12 Had 2 or 3 runs this season only.

Finishing Position and Seasonal run trends would leave a shortlist of: Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Mart Lane, Carruthers, Ballyoliver, Hawkes Point, Cadeau George, Sixty Something and Global Power

As always in these races you have a dilemma.

Do you go with horses that have proved they stay or a horse that may improve for a step up in trip. In the past week I have backed 2 horses to success in distance races. Itoldyou won for me at Plumpton in the Sussex National at 14/1 (those that follow me on twitter were on @Josh_HW) and Scotswell in the North Yorkshire equivalent at 8/1 (posted on my Racingtoprofit.co.uk blog in ‘Pace Wins Race’ write up) Both had different profiles. Itoldyou was still lightly raced over fences (but still with enough experience if that makes sense) and had been getting outpaced/staying on over 3m2f. I thought the step up in trip would suit and at 14/1 I was happy to take the chance. Scotswell on the other hand was a proven stayer. In every race like this you have that dilemma.

Having looked through this race I am going with two proven stayers with a touch of class. If they run their race they should be bang there fighting out the finish. None of the unproven stayers look worthy of backing in my opinion…

Theatrical Star: step up could help, but unproven in such a competitive race and jumping sometimes suspect; Global Power: ties in with him on their Fontwell run, and I don’t think they are good enough to win this, on what they have shown to date. They are both open to improvement however; Mart Lane: Needs to show much more, too inconsistent at moment; Ballyoliver: quite exposed, looks a C3 animal at best to me. Given connections a bold show wouldnt be a total surprise however; Cadeau George is a 6yo and this will be tough on only his 4th chase start. Not enough experience for me; Sixty Something: Well he is still unexposed over fences,this being only his 10th start, and is in form at least. That race fell apart and he too is a suspect jumper at times. I want to see more proven chase form in such a large field. He also needs to step up on what he has done to date but the trip could help;   Shotgun Paddy: Last year’s winner is interesting but has to carry top weight here and hasn’t shown much in recent starts. You could make excuses for those runs and I would expect him to run well. However a couple of doubts for me to think 7/1 is a bit skinny. He is in the right age group and if the weight doesn’t burden him he must go close. As yet, since 2000, no horse has won this twice. I have looked through the other, non-trends qualifiers and I am happy to discount them. Benbane Head could run a big race but he will need to improve for the step up and his best form has been on a sounder surface. He won’t get it all his own way up front either. Return Spring is really unexposed for such a tough chase such as this, and is 5/1. That is no price for a horse with so much to prove. He could win but I won’t kick myself that I wasn’t on.

That brings me onto the selections.

Hawkes Point

I backed him last time in the Welsh National where he was very disappointing. Race conditions are fine and his mark has dropped a bit. A repeat of his Welsh National run in 2014 will see him go very close here. Clearly he is a bit of a character and all hopes are pinned on the blinkers working their magic. Normally I am weary of first time blinkers as you never know what effect they could have. But we are getting 14/1 and the trainer does use them to great effect. Benvolio came a gallant second in the Welsh National for Nicholls and he was sporting first-time headgear having looked inconsistent previously. If they have the same affect on his stable mate we will get a very good run for our money. When on song he races handily, jumps well and he stays. It should be evident quite quickly if he is going to run a big race.

Carruthers

This 12yo came second in this race last year of a mark off 150, carrying 11-7. He races here, 1 year later, off 14lbs lower, has less weight on his back, and must surely go well. He handles all race conditions and ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last time. That demonstrated that he retains all of his enthusiasm and with veterans having won this race before I thought he was a solid bet. 8/1 isn’t massive in a race like this but I think they are fair. I would like to think this has been the season’s target. I think he stays this trip ok based on his run in the race last year and hopefully the lower rating, and weight on his back, will see him go one step closer.

So that’s it. The writing could be on the wall for Hawkes Point fairly early on but if the blinkers do work I think we will be very excited come the last fence. Nicholls has won this race a few times before and this horse, when right, will win a race like this. Let’s hope it is tomorrow. I can see no reason why Carruthers will not put up another bold show and we should get a decent run for our money. Let’s hope we get more of a race than we did for my Welsh National bets!

Good Luck.

2014 Review

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Please see below a report detailing a review of the system’s performance during 2014 and that of every trainer. There is also information about changes I have made to the rules for 3 trainers that will improve their performance.

2014 Review One Track Trainers

As always comments etc are welcome and I respond on my return to the UK on Sunday. Bar this evening, selections will be posted as normal. Selections for tomorrow will be posted no later than 7am Wednesday morning.

Happy New Year and here is to a more prosperous 2015,

Josh

Horse Profiles

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As a thank you for sticking with OTT despite the difficult start I have pulled together 20 horse profiles for you. The first 10 of these are exclusive to OTT subscribers and I will be sending out the others to all those on my main mailing list.

Hopefully following the introduction to the document it is all self explanatory and you can do what you please with these horses. I suggest adding them to your trackers, waiting for them to run under their prescribed conditions and then making some profit! :)

Have  a great Christmas and New Year, and here is to a more profitable 2015 for OTT!

20 HORSE PROFILES

Weekly Wrap: 22/12/14

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Update: For some amateurish reason I appear to have mixed up results sheets and admitted two losers which was an honest oversight. Results will be updated now, as will the blog below…apologies for any confusion…

Thankfully, and long overdue, we had more of a  ‘typical’ week and more importantly a profitable one, if only slightly. It is still proving to be a bit of a struggle but hopefully we can build on this week moving forward.

While we are still 25 points down before today’s two runners we made a small 1.5 profit on the week and hopefully this is the start of a profitable run.

There were 13 selections in total with 3 winners priced 11/2, Evens and 5/1. This 23% win strike rate is more like what we should be hitting long term and is climbing towards the 27% we are after. In all 7 horses were in the top 3 with the majority running quite well.

There isnt much more to say really other than thanks to those who have stuck with it so far. I know the start has tested all of our patience and that while not a superb week it has been better than the past few.

As discussed last week I am currently working on some profile horses to send you. I am just going through my HRB account to prick out the best ones that I am tracking. These will be posted in the Bonus area tomorrow.

Have a great Christmas and New Year,

Josh

 

Sat TV Trends: Ascot + Haydock

SAT TV TRENDS

ASCOT

Silver Cup Handicap Chase

Only stats for previous 8 renewals so not too strong..

7/8 Top 6 lto

6/8 7 or 8 yo (0/8 10yo+, 20 have tried)

5/8 Top 5 in market

8/8 ran 16-60 days ago (only 24 have tried outside of that rest period)

6/8 Only 1 run that season (1/8 2 runs that season)

Shortlist:

Houblon Des Obeaux comes up strongly on the trends, and won this race last year. Question is whether the Hennessy run has taken anything out of him, and his revised mark. 7/2

7 or 8 yo and Top 5 lto would leave Ardkilly Witness and Polisky as well.

 

The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle

(stats for previous 9 renewals)

8/9 Top 3 lto

5/9 5 yo – (from 53 runners. 4/9 age 4,6,7 from 98 runners)

5/9 0 or 1 run this season

7/9 had run over a maximum of 2m 4f previously

7/9 had won 1 or 2 races (max) over further

5/9 had only won 1 race over the distance

Trainers: From last 11 renewals team Pipe (3); Henderson (3); other winners Skelton, G.Elliot, King, V.Williams, H.Morrison

Shortlist:

Focussing on top 3 lto, run a maximum over 2m4f,and had won 1 or 2 races over further would leave a shortlist of: Goodwood Mirage; Pyromaniac; Hello George and Clondaw Warrior

If you like using trends I would suggest focussing on those top 3 last time out in order to cut the field down and carry out further analysis form there.

 

HAYDOCK

 Tommy Whittle Chase

(Only stats for previous 7 renewals)

7/7 aged 7 or 8

0/27 priced bigger than 12/1

4/7 ran 8-15 days ago (from only 17 runners)

6/7 has not won over further than 3m

4/7 only 1 run this season

Shortlist: Maybe wise not to use trends for this race but tby applying those above you can cut the field in half and leave: Firebird Flyer; Toby Lerone; Fill The Power; Safran De Cotte

 

Grech Family Handicap Hurdle

(stats for previous 9 renewals)

6/9 3rd last time out (an illogical stat!, 1st or 2nd lto 0/25 runners)

7/9 Top 3 in market

8/9 had never won at the distance

Trainer: Nicky Richards only trainer to win more than once (2) since 2000

Shortlist: focussing on the non-distance winners (no markets formed yet) would leave: Abracadabra Sivola; Kilcooley; Muckle Roe; Taj Badalandabad

Weekly Wrap: 15/12/14

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There is not too much to say this week apart from the fact that the expected and hoped for turn around didn’t happen this week. I suppose when we had another well backed second on Monday the writing was on the wall for what was to follow. Unfortunately not many of this past week’s 10 selections ran well at all. There was a decent winner for Ralph Beckett but that was all we had to shout about. Three more frustrating seconds meant we suffered a loss on the week of 3.5 points using BOG Bookies.

While -26.5 points is far from disastrous I am aware that this has been uncomfortable for many. When I was accumulating +90 points profit from July to launch date I was hoping we would not have a start like this but I suppose it was inevitable that we would. This is a value system services and unfortunately this will happen from time to time. Despite the start however we are only two 14/1 winners away from going into profit. These winners will come and I hope enough of you stick around to back them.

A few of our trainers are due a winner…Anthony Honeyball is 0/10 for us and should be having winners soon. Rae Guest (0/5), David Lanigan (0/6), Ian Williams (0/4) and Colin Tizzard (0/1) are yet to hit the board for us, but they will. Individually those results are nothing to be concerned with and they will have winners in time. We are still awaiting our first all-weather qualifiers from Ruth Carr and Sir Mark Prescott, hopefully they are not too far away.

I am grateful to those that are riding this mini storm at the moment and have stuck with the One Track Trainers. As a thank you I will be sending you, most likely via the members’ area, a selection of my best ‘Profile Horses’ just for you. I will be introducing ‘Horse Profiling’ in the coming weeks and hopefully this group of horses will provide you with some decent profits when running under their optimum conditions. I will email out when it is ready, which will hopefully be this week, if not it will be before Christmas.

Josh

 

p.s Another frustrating second as Leonard Thomas is denied close home by a neck. That now means 40% of all selections have finished in the top 2, unfortunately though there have been 17 seconds, with only 7 winners. Although bloody frustrating hopefully this gives you some confidence for the future.