I have had a valid question re the results, considering two horses that were sent off at bigger than 14/1 are recorded as winners.
As I have explained previously (but possibly not clearly) I record results to available prices around 10am in the morning, using BOG bookies. I use Bet365, SkyBet, Betfred, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill to determine if a horse is a qualifier. Very rarely is it unclear at this time, with most horses clearly 14/1 or under across the board…or with enough 16/1+ to be a non qualifier at that time. Only once since launch has a horse contracted from a non-qualifying price at 10am to be sent off at 14/1 or under. (it lost) (Where possible I advise tracking those horses hovering around 14/1, especially if racing later in the evening, but i know this is not always possible. There will no doubt be a horse that contracts after 10am and wins at some point in the future)
I do this because in my opinion for any system to work for recreational punters (many of whom work) it is not practical or fair to record results solely on their starting price, whereby you would have to track the price until right before the off to determine whether they qualify- especially for those on the border. In saying that the trainers should be profitable to Betfair SP (when 14/1 or under ISP) because that is a price everyone can get. Taking Best Odds Guaranteed, as you can see from the results, is much better that BFSP however.
By recording results based on prices available at around 10am that means we back horses that do drift. You will see from the results, and the notes to the right, that these horses are recorded as qualifiers.(with a note saying ‘late drift’) These are horses that I have backed and should be recorded as such. There have been 22 drifters, and before the two recent winners, they were showing a loss of 20 points. I have said previously that these will even themselves out over time and following the two ‘winners’, horses sent off over 14/1 are now +14 points. However, we/I will back many more drifters before the year is out and this will even itself out. These horses were recorded as winners because they were 14/1 or under at around 10am, across those bookmakers above.
I will continue to record results in this way. Come the end of the year it will be very transparent as to the profit/loss from such selections and the difference these make to overall results.
Provided I can adjust the membership system (should be no problem at all) I plan to extend your membership until the end of 2015, given the poor start and the fact I think this approach is best judged over the calendar year. I will then review 2015 and, depending on results etc, make a decision whether or not to re launch in its current form at some point in 2016.