Comments on: Weekly Wrap: 15/12/14

By: admin

admin — Thu, 18 Dec 2014 10:16:31 +0000

Hi Malcolm…Yes I share your slight concerns and am going to do monitor him closely. Certainly when I was building the system last year i wasnt comfortable excluding certain types of runners (novice hurdlers say) as there wasnt enough data in my opinion to make a call.That would have been back fitting simply to make more profitable. I also knew there was a virus last year and his solid place strike rate over last couple of years made me think it would turn around, as well as backing horses at opening prices. However, I agree his record for us to date is not good, and over the last 2 years has been patchy – albeit only 10 runners so far for us. It is my job to keep on top of any slight changes and I will see if there are any of his runners we can now confidently exclude.

By: malcolm pendrey

malcolm pendrey — Thu, 18 Dec 2014 06:55:59 +0000

when I read your comments about all the trainers, I had my doubts about A Honeyball. the evidence was not over convincing. 0 from 10 is not good. I might not back anymore of A Honeyball

By: admin

admin — Wed, 17 Dec 2014 22:48:46 +0000

Cheers David that means a lot…it has been stressful do far, especially the number of seconds…i dont like criticizing jockeys and rarely do but Jacob should have won on Masters Hill who was 8/1 last night and instead of a 1.5 profit day it really should have been a 10.5 profit day – but that is racing and it will get better. I have built this system with honesty and integrity, firmly believing in the approach. While the system may not be performing at the moment you will always gets an up front and honest appraisal from me and I am not one for hiding. I will always back anything i put out with my own money, and while no comfort to you this run has cost me over £600 so far, at £20 a point. I tested this system live with my own money for 4 months and wouldnt have released it were it not profitable during that period. Anyway, enough horses are running well for me to know it will turn around and I thank you for sticking with it, i know those with patience will be rewarded. Josh

By: David Farmer

David Farmer — Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:30:12 +0000

Yes we have had a bad run Josh but I am sticking
with you because I firmly believe that your method makes sense and will eventually come good. Also you appear to be a more genuine
person than many involved in the game of selling
horse race systems and tipping services.

By: admin

admin — Tue, 16 Dec 2014 13:58:37 +0000

Thanks Michael..well I will never hide and will always be honest. I am backing everyone with £20 of my own money and I am as disappointed as everyone else with the start. However, although bloody annoying the fact that 40% are in top 2 is a good sign, if not a frustrating one. The winners will come and there are not many value services you will join that wont have a run like this at some point, i do of course just wish we had points in the bank before it started. Thanks for keeping the faith for now!

By: Michael

Michael — Tue, 16 Dec 2014 08:19:31 +0000

Yes it is a bit of a worry !! but as you say this happens and one has to ride the storm!!!!
It is nice to know that at least we get a response from you admitting and identifying problems !!
Thanks and all the best !
Michael

By: admin

admin — Mon, 15 Dec 2014 22:00:08 +0000

Yes I mean long term we should be operating at a 27% win strike rate but it is less that half that at the moment. As you say, if half of those seconds were winners we would be in a much better positions. Winners, and those priced 8/1 + have been thin on the ground but they will come and it wont take many to turn things around and lift spirits and profits.

By: admin

admin — Mon, 15 Dec 2014 21:56:36 +0000

Point taken!:) Yes a couple of decent priced winners would be welcome, too much knocking on the door at the moment! They will come

By: james

james — Mon, 15 Dec 2014 20:34:04 +0000

Even a couple of 10/1 winners would be nice 😛

By: Bristol Dave

Bristol Dave — Mon, 15 Dec 2014 19:14:14 +0000

Hmm that’s interesting, close but no cigar. I’m not holding out for 14/1 shots for a turnaround, but if half those seconds turn into winners going forward then we are back on track. Not a criticism, just an obvious and learned observation from being on the losing end of a run, 30% strike rates are clearly great aligned with decent prices, but when the 70% of misses come along like buses then it’s difficult. Likewise with a 50% place rate, working on it with real money as opposed to reading it is very different, clearly well done in being placed but the returns on a quarter and a fifth have steered me towards win only, obviously variations in real long odds, and at a festival meeting with decent prices and playing with real notes from my pocket I’d be inclined to use place betting, nice to have some folding paper back, meanwhile online this process has really hit home the need for a decent bank to cover points staked, makes a real difference to day to day betting and detaching it from living expenses, here to learn, good and bad, learning. Cheers, no bad.