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Below are trends from 5 races across Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. As ever use them as you please. Using my Horseracebase account I have picked out those stats that I find most significant. I use trends to get a shortlist, at which point I then do some further form study/profiling. If there is a horse at the top of the market that is not on my shortlist I will also look at them carefully. Trends are useful to a point, but i would never recommend using them in isolation.

Cheltenham Trends– The Open Meeting
14/11/14
Paddy Power Handicap Chase 2m
6/11 Top 3 Last Time Out
11/11 Age 6-9, even spread based on number of runners. 10 yo 0/11
10/11 Carried 11-07 or less. 17 runners carried more, 1 winner carrying 11-12
11/11 Top 6 in the market
11/11 12/1 or under. 47 horses in the period have gone off bigger than 12/1,only 3 placed
Days Since Run – a mix. 5/11 8-30 days, 6/11 125-365
8/11 had won at least once over the distance (2 miles)
9/11 had won 3 or 4 times over further – although only 1/11 had won over further than 2m3f

Cross Country Chase
9/16 – Top 4 LTO
12/16 – 6/1 or under ISP
2/16 – 6,7,8 year olds, from 84 runners. (8yo 2/39)
14/16 – 9 yo+ includes winners age 12,13 and 14
12/16 – Top three in the market
12/16 ran 8-30 days ago
10/16 had ran over 4m1f+ previously in career

15/11/14
Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3m 3.5f
13/17 Top 6 LTO (9/17 top 3 LTO)
16/17 12/1 or under ISP
13/17 5-8 year olds (9+10 yo 3/66 runners)
All 18 horses to have tried carrying more than 11-10 have lost
14/17 Top 5 in market
8 winners ran 16-60 days ago
8 winners were returning from 121-365 day break.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase
8/17 Won LTO
13/17 Top 4 LTO
11/17 8/1 or shorter (those 11 coming from 59 runners. 6 at bigger odds coming from 208 runners)
17/17 Age 5-9
12/17 Age 5,6,7
17/17 Carried 11-9 or less
12/17 Top 3 in market
15/17 rated 150 or less
8/17 returning 1-30 days
9/17 returning 125-365 days
17/17 had 0, 1 or 2 runs only this Season
13/17 had never won beyond 2m 6f
17/17 had won over at least 2m 3.5f
‘Team’ Pipe have won 7/17 (David with 1 win so far)
Jonjo O’Neill + Nigel T-D have won 2 each in last 7 years

16/11/14
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

11/17 Top 2 LTO
14/17 Top 5 LTO
15/17 12/1 or under
15/17 Age 4,5,6
4 winners carried 11-12 from 12 runners, 6 winning or placing.
9/17 Top 2 in market
15/17 Top 7 in market
15/17 had 0 or 1 win over distance only.
14/17 had 0 or 1 runs this season. (even split 7-7)

I have just read a good article over at www.geegeez.co.uk about the importance of course form at Cheltenham. Suffice to say that ideally you want a horse to have run at the track before. They don’t have to have won, nor placed, but experience of the course is a big positive. Check it out.

This will be it for trends this week.

Results for OTT will be uploaded this Sunday and I will write a short ‘Weekly Wrap’ piece on the Blog on Monday, as well as a look at some ‘Long Distance Jockey’s’

Enjoy your weekend, and as always, comments are welcome. Thanks to all those who have suggested racing books to read. I will be adding them to my shopping list!

Josh