Weekly Wrap (a quick look at the results)
Enhver gjest ønsker å kjøpe sanne medisinen som reduserer hårtap og mengden av en DHT i apoteket fra ditt eget hjem her Propecia rett og slett! Du trenger ikke gå til legen og få resept. Søk over 500 medisiner. århundre har blitt funnet en måte å komme ut av denne situasjonen og navnet er effektivt og trygg medisinsk forberedelse Propecia finasteride (Propecia) ingen resept.
Well it has been just over one week since One Track Trainers went live and if truth be told the start could have been better. Six trainers (out of 16) have made their debut and collectively they have managed two wins, three seconds, one third and a few unplaced horses.
Had you been betting each way, betting 1 point win when 5/1 or under and ½ a point each way when 5/1 or above you would have made a loss of just over 5.5 points. Just betting 1 point to win on every selection would have made you a loss of nearly 8.5 points. The win strike rate has been 13.3% and the average winning odds 2.34/1. Given the historical winning strike rate has been just over 27% and the average winning odds have been just over 4.7/1 the weekly figures are no surprise. For information since launch I have upped my own stakes to £20 a point and I now bet each way as above (I had just been betting £10 to win) My loss for the week stands at -£113.00.
As I stressed in the promotion for One Track Trainers if you cannot handle backing losers, or the odd losing week or month, then this system will not be for you. I will always be honest and upfront about the system’s performance. I will not get annoyed when we have a poor run and equally I will not get over excited when we have the inevitable good run. Of course I would have liked a +20 point winning week but it was not to be. The purpose of this system is to make profits over the long term and I have every confidence that the trainers will deliver. But we will have to be patient.
A handful of members have left already, unhappy with results. For those considering doing the same I would just ask that you give the system a fair chance. You have 52/53 more days in which to paper trade selections risk free and then make a decision whether this is for you. I would hate for you to leave before giving it a fair crack of the whip and then miss out on a load of profit.
Fingers crossed Rae Guest gets the week off to a great start tomorrow and we have a profitable week.
If you have any questions/comments please post them and I will get back to you.
Josh
While past performance is no gaurantee of a future it’s the best guide we’ve got! No reason not to believe past results won’t return, those trainers want to win as much as we do. If finding a losing week painful I hope we don’t encounter a losing month then, but the warning of all possible outcomes bad and good is in the stats, shame about a losing start but when following statistics it’s about taking the emotion out of it and following the numbers. A couple of winners won’t go amiss to restore balances. Legs crossed!
Hi Josh – the only concern is the 14/1 cut off point. i.e. if 4 out of the 9 bookmakers that are priced up the night before show 14s do you go ahead and back that selection & then find out in the morning when all 9 are priced up that it is between say 14’ & 16s and ceases to become a selection.
Conversely if in the morning all 9 bookmakers (that you mentioned previously) show a variation between say 16’ & 14’s and you don’t back, then later in the day it shortens to 14’s or less and goes onto win at say 12/1 & you are at work and not able to back then you miss out but presumably that would go down in your results as a win selection?
Would it be an idea to suggest that when the markets forms round about 10 in the morning if the selection shows 14’s or less with all 9 bookmakers then this becomes a solid selection irrespective of what it was the night before or the rest of the day.
I appreciate this wouldn’t be ideal for everybody but would of thought for the majority this would be more specific.
Totally agree with Bristol Dave, a couple of winners will make all the difference. This is the start of a new season and results at this time of year can be skewed by the weather, which in some meetings has changed very quickly from good, to heavy. I think it will need the rest of this month to settle down.
With regard to the results page, cannot get it on my computer as I don`t have Office, any chance of doing it in pdf format, also still have that annoying navigation box showing.
Josh
As I’ve already said in an e-mail to you, well done for the standard of service you provide with a crystal clear website, good free stuff and excellent communication with members..a rare combination
in this business. I’m sure the winners will come. As for those who’ve taken the illogical decision to leave already..I’m bound to say you’re better off without them !
Hi Dave,
Yes I appreciate the issues with an odds cut off and it does cause the odd issue with certain selections. Unfortunately there is no exact science as to when the best time to bet is and we may miss the odd bet as you describe – a non qualifier that qualifies during the day and you are unable to bet- but equally I am convinced that we will back the odd horse that drifts late to 16s and goes on to win. While as a portfolio the system is not profitable above 14/1 there are a couple of trainers that do have the odd 16/1 winner.
In terms of me recording results, I will always be as honest as possible – as you have seen with the inclusion of the three late drifters – i was on, and i suspect everyone else was. Equally I will have to include any horse that shortens late but will make clear if it was a late contractor. Over the next couple of months we will be able to build up a reliable picture of how often this happens. Depending on analysis over the next year maybe i will have to look at building a Bot to do the betting for us.
I agree with your 10am suggestion and that is what I have been using as a basis for if a horse qualifies – and certainly for when I try and place my own bets. That appears to be the best time to make a judgement call. However sometimes i have to bet the night before and you just have to make a judgement. Thankfully there are not too many borderline bets with the majority clearly 12/1 or under. The historical results suggest we have a lot of points to play with as well. Taking early prices is worth 100 points plus above BFSP already this year so although it is annoying we can afford to back the odd drifter. It will be most annoying of course when we miss a horse that shortens. If you are able to check at all during the day then great, but it not as i have said we have a lot of points to play with and it will even itself out – although it wont feel like it at the time you miss the bet!
I would point out in my time betting live from start of July there were no non qualifiers that shortened to qualify during the day and then went on to win. We will just have to see how it pans out over next few months. One thing is for sure, the trainers would not be profitable if there was no odds cut off, or even if it was 16/1 + across the board.
I can be more specific about the 10am suggestion if you would think that helps.
Hi,
Yes i am working on making the Results page just a link to another web page so everyone can access it. Hopefully I will have that sorted by the end of the day. I will also look at the PDF option.
Hi Josh – many thanks for your comprehensive reply and I think for me the 10 o clock approach would be best and then see how results pan out over time. As you say with the advantage of taking an early price we have points to play with as well.
I also agree with Mike above insofar that you provide a good service and prompt replies to your members & I am sure in time going on the information you have provided that winners will be forthcoming.
Hi Hopeful,
I see what you mean now about the navigation box – it is fine for Google Chrome and is where it should be, however when you go on through Internet Explorer it is all over the place, and covering the writing etc. Trying to sort that now
Josh
Well there you go! Backed Rae Guest’s to win and was sure it would. 2nd. Didn’t fancy Dandy Nicholls at all but took 14s e/w this morning at half my win stake e/w and in it goes at 16s with my best odds gaurantee returned too. Have to follow my own advice, (ie just follow Josh) keep my emotions and opinions out of it and follow the service I’m paying for, cheers, I’m here for the long run.
Superb! Yes i had my usual 1/2 point EW stake that I use for most of my mini systems…was rather relieved when Joe Fanning got to the front and dictated,when he is on a fit horse usually only one outcome
Those bonus systems, and ones i will release in future, would probably make a good service by themselves! Glad you were on. Disappointed with main selection, looked like he was coming to win but couldn’t quite get to leader. Conundrum now what to do with Nicholls – he was 1/14 with 16/1 shots +3 points profit (0/16 above those odds) but now he is 2/15 and + 19 points at sp. Anyway, was nice to have a good priced winner, and i know one of the main system ‘drifters’ will do the same in future! Lets hope the 3 tomorrow can get us on the board, plus 3 for bonus systems.
Hi Josh
Joe put the field to sleep to give us a nice profit for the day, which got me out of the poop as i had a bad dose of seconditis . This highlights the importance of having at portfolio. I would not be concerned about those who have left more fool them. Onwards and upwards dear fellow
Hi Jimbo,
thanks for comment, much appreciated. Indeed, I do like it when Joe puts the field to sleep, glad you were on. Now we just need some of the main selections to get their noses in front but the winners will come.
hi josh, a good result today, have used your selections in e/way doubles a couple of times now, these have given me a 6pt profit since i begun with you.If this has been a bad week i am looking forward to the good ones.
Cheers Alan! Well indeed, if i view the Bonus Selections as part of the package (and they have been as well researched as the main system and as individual trainers are often as profitable) then it has been ok
I know the main system will turn around but you always hope the first week after a launch would be better, but that is just how it goes i suppose! If you are using the correct bank we are a long way from being concerned. Glad you are doing well out of the ew doubles.
Hi Josh
It’s scary how many systems/strategies struggle when they go live to market its a strange phenomenon… I have no doubt you/we will make profits in the long term as you can clearly tell you are a grafter and have a passion for what you do. Attributes for success!!
Hi Josh, what’s your own personal P/L since you started backing the 1TT system with your own money?
Cheers and good luck
Hi Simon,
I Started backing with my own money from the beginning of July for 4 months before launch betting £10 a point win only. In that time the system made £900 (well £896 to be precise)to £10 level stakes, so 90 points. And that was with a 6 point loss in October which was a tricky month. Since the service went live and I started recording results for service since 6th November I doubled my stake to £20 a point. I have been betting 10 ew when 5/1 or over and £20 win when under 5/1 – so i am £113 down since live…so that is a long way of saying that since I started backing selections with my own money since start of July I am now £783 up – so just over 78 points. Although as i said i am now £20 a point.
With 1TT which is the main system i use, plus the 8 or so micro systems i use and my own personal ‘form’/profiled horses’ betting i am about 720 points up to £10 bets since January 1st.
Fingers crossed we can have a few winners this week and the sooner it gets into profit since live the better
it must be the curse of launching a new service!
Josh
Sorry, that was not including today’s second, so now -£133 for me since we went live to £20 a point.
Thanks for the speedy reply. The system looks very good on paper. I have come across systems in the past that look very good on paper and haven’t delivered. Hopefully 1TT’s does the business!
Yes so have i, and i have purchased a few myself. unfortunately, as a fellow subscriber pointed out, all we have to go on his history and unfortunately we cannot predict the future. You just have to take confidence that is has been well researched and it is based on very logical and sound principles – and it is based on human behaviour/habits and providing they dont drastically change their training approach and approach to placing their horses we should be fine. But as you say, proof will be in the eating so to speak so fingers crossed the winners start coming in soon. As you have seen with Dandy Nicholls 16/1 winner today that was a bonus selection if you can tap into a trainer’s approach you can do very well.
Hi Josh,
Not worried at all about the slow start, quite the opposite as I am always suspicious when things get off to a flyer.
Any chance of adding the new ‘three jockeys to follow’ blog to the bonus bets, I don’t always have time to go through everything.
Hi Jim, thanks for that, yes I am not worried but it would be nice if it picked up soon
I wasn’t sure whether to add them into the Bonus Selections but i suppose I could do! Its then up to you how you use them, but as I back them already with my own money it probably makes sense to post them.
Ok I’ve backed the new additional bonus bets too tomorrow, look live chances but I trust they are as systematically historically statistically sound for returns, I’m not ungrateful and I know we are all grown ups but just concerned at additional pressure on my betting bank with a lot of bets a day if encountering losing runs, and I understand taking into account spread of bets/risk should give cover but sometimes less is more compendre?? Hey if they all come in sometime I promise to spell guarantee right! 😉 keeping the faith, cheers!
Hi Dave…yes it is tricky, if you re read the bonus guides I do advise having a separate betting bank – i reckon 50 points should cover the bonus selections but there is no exact science. I would strongly suggest a separate 100 point bank for OTT selections. If needs be just paper trade the bonus selections or use them in addition to your own form analysis, if you bet on those types of races anyway. They are all well researched and statistically sound
as you will see from the guides.
The OTT selections keep banging on the door! shame all the winners have been short prices but that will change! Glad you are still keeping the faith, you will be rewarded!
Ok I’m with you, thanks for quick reply, I will just have to feel my way through this, definitely a bedding in period hence the questions, and yes the bonuses have been great and given returns and cover against the original main bets for which I’m grateful, if the historic stats for all these guides are on a par then I’m happy to follow, and will have to find staking plans to allow for that, I’m a level stakes singles player on the whole so should work out given right results over time. Cheers again.
Its fair to say the O.T.T. selections have got off to a slow start and some subscribers have voted with their feet.I think they have hit the ejector button much too early and shouldnt have subscribed in the first place .Instant and continued glory is like finding a needle in a haystack.
We have a 60 day money back guarantee in place and only a fifth of my betting bank has gone.I have set aside 50 pts.If money cannot be made with a fifty point betting bank then the service is not worth having.
However,human nature is such that when a losing run continues and you have forked out over £100 for the service,you begin to worry if it can ever make any money.Past results count for nothing when your bank balance is dwindling.
The bonus selections are exactly that,a bonus.I use 1/5 of the stake i use for O.T.T..Its the main selections that will decide what i do.Plenty of time left and most of the bank in tact.At the moment the service is not doing what it said on the tin.The next month will decide its future.People would have every right for a refund if the results stay as they are.Lets hope they turn around.
Hi Roddo…i tend to agree with everything you have said. This service should be judged on the OTT performance of the main bets. I would add that with a win strike rate of 27% we could hit a consecutive losing run of 22 or so although if you have a betting bank that can handle 2 of the losing runs then 50 points should be enough. Certainly in my 4 months testing with my own money a 30 point bank would have been ok…having just checked those results again, had you joined or started backing on anyone single the biggest lost was 19.5 points, which happened from 6th-10th august.
I would stress that I would prefer people to paper trade for the 60 days before making a decision but that is up to them. In truth whenever i have joined a new service i always struggled not to bet!
At the end of the day i am very confident with this approach, hence why i bet £20 a point now and I know it will pick up. If it is just me backing the selections come mid January then so bet it, but i am confident it will make me £5-7k a year, if not more.
Given the historical stats for the system this run is not a surprise as it is likely every now and then. Betting Each way would certainly have reduced losses up to this point, i just want some of those 8/1 -12/1 seconds to become winners!
cheer
Josh
Hi Josh. I would like to thank you for the bonus bets as they are helping to keep my bank nearly intact while the OTT is going through a baron spell.I have just looked up D Lanigans record for the last 30 days and he has had 10 runners and no winners so his horses are clearly out of form.Regards Roy clark
Hi Roy..thanks for message, as you say Lanigan stable is maybe out of form, and that does happen with Trainer systems,hopefully some of the others step up and come into form soon! And yes i am pleased with the bonus selections and am glad some of them are winning! fingers crossed OTT winning run is just around the corner!