Weekly Wrap: 15/12/14
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There is not too much to say this week apart from the fact that the expected and hoped for turn around didn’t happen this week. I suppose when we had another well backed second on Monday the writing was on the wall for what was to follow. Unfortunately not many of this past week’s 10 selections ran well at all. There was a decent winner for Ralph Beckett but that was all we had to shout about. Three more frustrating seconds meant we suffered a loss on the week of 3.5 points using BOG Bookies.
While -26.5 points is far from disastrous I am aware that this has been uncomfortable for many. When I was accumulating +90 points profit from July to launch date I was hoping we would not have a start like this but I suppose it was inevitable that we would. This is a value system services and unfortunately this will happen from time to time. Despite the start however we are only two 14/1 winners away from going into profit. These winners will come and I hope enough of you stick around to back them.
A few of our trainers are due a winner…Anthony Honeyball is 0/10 for us and should be having winners soon. Rae Guest (0/5), David Lanigan (0/6), Ian Williams (0/4) and Colin Tizzard (0/1) are yet to hit the board for us, but they will. Individually those results are nothing to be concerned with and they will have winners in time. We are still awaiting our first all-weather qualifiers from Ruth Carr and Sir Mark Prescott, hopefully they are not too far away.
I am grateful to those that are riding this mini storm at the moment and have stuck with the One Track Trainers. As a thank you I will be sending you, most likely via the members’ area, a selection of my best ‘Profile Horses’ just for you. I will be introducing ‘Horse Profiling’ in the coming weeks and hopefully this group of horses will provide you with some decent profits when running under their optimum conditions. I will email out when it is ready, which will hopefully be this week, if not it will be before Christmas.
Josh
p.s Another frustrating second as Leonard Thomas is denied close home by a neck. That now means 40% of all selections have finished in the top 2, unfortunately though there have been 17 seconds, with only 7 winners. Although bloody frustrating hopefully this gives you some confidence for the future.
No worry. I’m seeing this through and hoping, I want to give this type of trying to make a difference a proper go. Just watched that race, so frustrating, there’s been a few like that, surely a few on the trot will go the other way too in time.
Thanks Dave…yes very frustrating but thanks for sticking with it. Just checked the stats and 40% have been top 2, but 17 have been second! Very annoying but out fortunes have to change at some point! a couple of 14/1 winners this week and we will be back on track
Hmm that’s interesting, close but no cigar. I’m not holding out for 14/1 shots for a turnaround, but if half those seconds turn into winners going forward then we are back on track. Not a criticism, just an obvious and learned observation from being on the losing end of a run, 30% strike rates are clearly great aligned with decent prices, but when the 70% of misses come along like buses then it’s difficult. Likewise with a 50% place rate, working on it with real money as opposed to reading it is very different, clearly well done in being placed but the returns on a quarter and a fifth have steered me towards win only, obviously variations in real long odds, and at a festival meeting with decent prices and playing with real notes from my pocket I’d be inclined to use place betting, nice to have some folding paper back, meanwhile online this process has really hit home the need for a decent bank to cover points staked, makes a real difference to day to day betting and detaching it from living expenses, here to learn, good and bad, learning. Cheers, no bad.
Even a couple of 10/1 winners would be nice 😛
Point taken!:) Yes a couple of decent priced winners would be welcome, too much knocking on the door at the moment! They will come
Yes I mean long term we should be operating at a 27% win strike rate but it is less that half that at the moment. As you say, if half of those seconds were winners we would be in a much better positions. Winners, and those priced 8/1 + have been thin on the ground but they will come and it wont take many to turn things around and lift spirits and profits.
Yes it is a bit of a worry !! but as you say this happens and one has to ride the storm!!!!
It is nice to know that at least we get a response from you admitting and identifying problems !!
Thanks and all the best !
Michael
Thanks Michael..well I will never hide and will always be honest. I am backing everyone with £20 of my own money and I am as disappointed as everyone else with the start. However, although bloody annoying the fact that 40% are in top 2 is a good sign, if not a frustrating one. The winners will come and there are not many value services you will join that wont have a run like this at some point, i do of course just wish we had points in the bank before it started. Thanks for keeping the faith for now!
Yes we have had a bad run Josh but I am sticking
with you because I firmly believe that your method makes sense and will eventually come good. Also you appear to be a more genuine
person than many involved in the game of selling
horse race systems and tipping services.
Cheers David that means a lot…it has been stressful do far, especially the number of seconds…i dont like criticizing jockeys and rarely do but Jacob should have won on Masters Hill who was 8/1 last night and instead of a 1.5 profit day it really should have been a 10.5 profit day – but that is racing and it will get better. I have built this system with honesty and integrity, firmly believing in the approach. While the system may not be performing at the moment you will always gets an up front and honest appraisal from me and I am not one for hiding. I will always back anything i put out with my own money, and while no comfort to you this run has cost me over £600 so far, at £20 a point. I tested this system live with my own money for 4 months and wouldnt have released it were it not profitable during that period. Anyway, enough horses are running well for me to know it will turn around and I thank you for sticking with it, i know those with patience will be rewarded. Josh
when I read your comments about all the trainers, I had my doubts about A Honeyball. the evidence was not over convincing. 0 from 10 is not good. I might not back anymore of A Honeyball
Hi Malcolm…Yes I share your slight concerns and am going to do monitor him closely. Certainly when I was building the system last year i wasnt comfortable excluding certain types of runners (novice hurdlers say) as there wasnt enough data in my opinion to make a call.That would have been back fitting simply to make more profitable. I also knew there was a virus last year and his solid place strike rate over last couple of years made me think it would turn around, as well as backing horses at opening prices. However, I agree his record for us to date is not good, and over the last 2 years has been patchy – albeit only 10 runners so far for us. It is my job to keep on top of any slight changes and I will see if there are any of his runners we can now confidently exclude.