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Another week, another bloody nose.
A loss of 7.88 points on the week if betting win only and a loss of 5.6 points if betting each way. The 12 selections produced 1 winner at odds of 11/4.
The glimmer of light, in another week of gloom, was that 6 of the 12 selections finished inside the top 3. This 50% place strike rate is in line with historical results and if this continues, which history suggests it should do, then things will turn around. There were a few frustrating seconds this week that would have made a big difference to the week but that is how it goes. I am not going to make excuses. We just need some of these placed horses to start getting their noses in front.
It has been a trying and difficult start that none of us would have wanted. I don’t really take any solace from the fact that many other services have also struggled at this time and that we are suffering the inevitable losing run that always happens after the launch of a new service. My bank balance says that I am around £370 down since launch and that is all that matters at the moment. However, I obviously have faith that things will turn around which comes from a belief in the trainers, the stats and the logic underpinning the method. I thank those that have stuck with it so far.
Unfortunately the nature of trainer systems, and using a portfolio of trainers, means we will suffer the odd run like this. I would have preferred it to happen in 3 or 4 months’ time when we all have some points in the bank. Anyway it is what it is. A 50 point bank, let alone a 100 point is nowhere near coming under threat yet.
So far we have called on the services of 8 of our 16 trainers. Now 4 of the 16 we only back on the Flat Turf so we won’t be seeing any qualifiers from them for a few months yet. However, we have yet to see any All-Weather qualifiers from Ruth Carr, Sir Mark Prescott and Bill Turner. We are also awaiting National Hunt qualifiers from Colin Tizzard.
Overall we have now had 49 qualifiers (average around 600 a year) with 23 finishing in the top 3. While that 47% place strike rate is just below the historical figure at least a lot of the selections are running well, as they should be. The issue is clearly the lack of winners. Only 6 have won to date with all bar one of them under 3/1. This 12.24% win strike rate is obviously well below the historical 27.45% win strike rate. We have had 14 second places. If 7 of those had won results would be more in line with historical results and we would no doubt be in a much healthier position. However, second places do not make us profit.
That is enough looking at history; this approach needs to prove itself live. I can only hope that these seconds and thirds start winning sometime soon. (they will start winning at some point, but the sooner the better!) Hopefully the place strike rate gives you some confidence moving forward that it will turn around.
Fingers crossed (again) for a profitable week ahead.
p.s you can find updated results in the usual place. Both excel files and PDF are available.