Weekly Wrap 8.12.14
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Another week, another bloody nose.
A loss of 7.88 points on the week if betting win only and a loss of 5.6 points if betting each way. The 12 selections produced 1 winner at odds of 11/4.
The glimmer of light, in another week of gloom, was that 6 of the 12 selections finished inside the top 3. This 50% place strike rate is in line with historical results and if this continues, which history suggests it should do, then things will turn around. There were a few frustrating seconds this week that would have made a big difference to the week but that is how it goes. I am not going to make excuses. We just need some of these placed horses to start getting their noses in front.
It has been a trying and difficult start that none of us would have wanted. I don’t really take any solace from the fact that many other services have also struggled at this time and that we are suffering the inevitable losing run that always happens after the launch of a new service. My bank balance says that I am around £370 down since launch and that is all that matters at the moment. However, I obviously have faith that things will turn around which comes from a belief in the trainers, the stats and the logic underpinning the method. I thank those that have stuck with it so far.
Unfortunately the nature of trainer systems, and using a portfolio of trainers, means we will suffer the odd run like this. I would have preferred it to happen in 3 or 4 months’ time when we all have some points in the bank. Anyway it is what it is. A 50 point bank, let alone a 100 point is nowhere near coming under threat yet.
So far we have called on the services of 8 of our 16 trainers. Now 4 of the 16 we only back on the Flat Turf so we won’t be seeing any qualifiers from them for a few months yet. However, we have yet to see any All-Weather qualifiers from Ruth Carr, Sir Mark Prescott and Bill Turner. We are also awaiting National Hunt qualifiers from Colin Tizzard.
Overall we have now had 49 qualifiers (average around 600 a year) with 23 finishing in the top 3. While that 47% place strike rate is just below the historical figure at least a lot of the selections are running well, as they should be. The issue is clearly the lack of winners. Only 6 have won to date with all bar one of them under 3/1. This 12.24% win strike rate is obviously well below the historical 27.45% win strike rate. We have had 14 second places. If 7 of those had won results would be more in line with historical results and we would no doubt be in a much healthier position. However, second places do not make us profit.
That is enough looking at history; this approach needs to prove itself live. I can only hope that these seconds and thirds start winning sometime soon. (they will start winning at some point, but the sooner the better!) Hopefully the place strike rate gives you some confidence moving forward that it will turn around.
Fingers crossed (again) for a profitable week ahead.
Josh
p.s you can find updated results in the usual place. Both excel files and PDF are available.
Hi John don’t sound to gloomy things can only change look at today if the jockey Kirby had held his ground and gone thought the gap instead of pulling the horse to the left and getting bumped I think he would have won it it will change I’m sure I have not give up,so plug on to better times.
Best of luck. Ray
Hi Ray, thanks for your message..indeed it will turn at some point, and the place strike rate and number of seconds, while annoying, backs up the logic of the approach – the winners will come soon no doubt! And I have joined services in the past that have had a worse start than this – these trainers do not become bad trainers over night and those of us with patience will be rewarded
Thanks for your continued support
I’ve never joined a service that had a winning start, must be me! But sherioushly, the ups and downs across the service and sites if we include racingtoprofit are very much a personal learning curve for me, (we never stop learning says I) I won’t get too deep but reading much May and Mordin amongst others my biggest hand wringer when studying returns are the old conundrum of win only bets against each way and bet prices, so many ‘experts’ and to be fair these are the well respected tipsters, book and system sellers, recommend win only betting and I can see why based on returns, the magic word ‘value’ and so on, gives me much to think about as I go over my last months betting, I’m slightly up, but seeking to tighten, improve, lose less, and get better with the services, it isn’t just about picking the horse but picking the bet too(!) forgive me if I’m merely thinking out loud, but hey, I’m still here, and as a man called Bill Hicks once said “it’s just a ride”
At least our horses are trying! Anyway i’m not going to complain as the service hasn’t lost me as much as some paid tipsters have in the past! Anyway i’ve been following the pace wins the race selections on the blog so that is keeping the profits up while we wait for the system to start paying off! That was some top class tipping over the weekend josh!
Hi James..thanks for message..yes they are trying and that is point of the approach, these trainer’s horses usually try when only runner at the track – i think we all hope that some of them would try a bit harder and win! Amore Allato at Sandown (i was there) was a right kick at decent odds, looked like his race and up loomed McCoy – just needed him to make a mistake at the last flight!
Yes the ‘tipping’ preview side is going ok – and I am glad you have some perspective compared to other services – I have a dogged belief in this system and it will start paying off at some point!
Josh
Hi Josh, I mainly concentrate on the turf 2yos so thought I would join a couple of services positively reviewed on Geegeez in the Autumn in order to give me something for fun. Your pace suggestions have helped enormously in keeping the faith but take heart.
The other service I joined on 23rd Oct (flat only) has given 109 selection of which only 13 have won. the last 57 selections have yielded just 3 winners at 6/1, 2/1 and 7/1. Previously it was consistently hitting close to 30% strike rate.
It is very hard to know what to do in these circumstances. I have dodged 34 of his losing bets in the last 57 simply because using the sort of logic Geegeez gold cards analysis offers I thought they were poor value even at big prices. The question then arises as to whether he is just another charlatan who had a lucky run on the turf in the summer. Certainly some of his recent selections appear to be simply desperate, out of form horses from bad draws often with inexperienced riders up.
No one is going to think that of your selections. I do not like to follow a system blindly so have skipped enough losers to still be up but the logic of your system is makes sense and provides a good starting point for me . That said it must be difficult for people who just want follow the system and not look more closely at the bets to to keep going through long losing runs.
Anyway I think the pace analysis and free bonuses mark you out as a serious student of the turf and I am sure most of your subscribers will stick with you.
Thanks for your message Hugh, all very good points and worth bearing in mind. I have not lost heart in the approach obviously, but it is disheartening knowing people are backing selections that you have faith in that as yet are not producing results. However, this being a trainer system these runs can happen – we have been unlucky that a few trainers have had a bad run all at same time, but individually the stats are not too bad… AJH 0/9, N.Williams 1/8, JJ Quinn 3/11, Beckett 1/7, Guest 0/5, Lanigan 0/6, I.Williams 0/4, Smith 1/2, Tizzard 0/1 – looking at stats by trainer isnt that bad – but collectively it obviously hasnt been pretty. But they are all good trainers and their winners will come.
At least with a system like this you know why the selections are being picked and that should give you confidence, despite results. I suppose with the service you have discussed not only do you lack confidence from results but also lack confidence in the methodology used to pick selections.
I am glad you are enjoying the Binuses, pace pieces and previews etc.
thanks for taking time to write,
Josh