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12/17 Top 5 Lto (4/17 Pulled Up Lto)
13/17 Aged 8,9,10 (7yo 1/24; 11yo 1/30; 12yo 1/14; 14 yo 1/1)
14/17 Top 9 in the market (fav 3/18 runners,inc joint)
9/17 ran 16-30 days ago ; 2/17 31-60 days ago; 6/17 returning 121-365 days ago)
0/17 returning within 15 days from 65 horses to have tried
15/17 had 0,1 or 2 runs only this season
Trainers with more than 1 winner: Nigel Twiston-Davis (3); P.Nicholls (3); P. Hobbs (2)
Applying all of the trends above, bar position in market and looking at all days rest from 16-60 and 121-365 leaves a rather long shortlist of…
Mr Moonshine, Burton Port, Mon Parrain, Mendip Express, Knock A Hand, Benbens, Shakalakaboomboom, Highland Lodge, Alfie Spinner, Saint Are, Master Neo
I will be waiting until this evening to see a full market and focussing on those above who are top 9/10 in the market.
If you are using the trends above please go through the race yourself to create your own shortlist. You may put more weight on certain factors than others for example.
Grand Sefton Chase
8/11 Top 5 Lto
10/11 Aged 8 or older (11/12 yo 1/16 runners)
0/12 carrying 11-12
6/11 ran 16-30 days ago
4/11 ran 121-365 days ago
Trainers with more than 1 winner: Jim Goldie (2) – 1 of them 66/1 (he has a 66/1 shot this year!)
Well no horses fit all the trends. If we focus on those 8 or older and remove Rolling Aces who is carrying 11-12 we cut the field in half to…Hunt Ball, Champion Court, Rebel Rebellion, Poole Master, Persian Snow, Benny’s Mist, Orpheus Valley, Too Cool To Fool.
None of that shortlist are returning after 121 days + and all of those remaining that ran in the last 16-30 days didn’t finish in the top 5 last time out. I think the age stat looks strong and there is no point in removing any more from that shortlist with trends.
Given Jim Goldie has won this race twice in recent years, one of which was 66/1, I don’t think I could live with myself if Too Cool To Fool won at 66/1 so he will carry some of my money EW. That may be it for this race for me as having had a quick look through nothing really stands out.
13/17 Top 2 Lto (2 from 3 runners PU)
12/17 5,6,7 yo
16/17 priced 6/1 or under
15/17 Top 3 in market
Trainers with more than 1 winner: P. Nicholls (8); Mrs John Herrington (2);
Shortlist: This looks to be between the top two in the market, Balder Succes and God’s Own. I am not sure how you can split them really on all their known form given it ties in so closely. I assume people think Balder will improve for his seasonal reappearance and that God’s Own was ‘more forward’ for their last race. God’s Own needs to prove that can handle soft ok as well. An interesting race ahead.