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Weekly Wrap (a quick look at the results)

Well it has been just over one week since One Track Trainers went live and if truth be told the start could have been better. Six trainers (out of 16) have made their debut and collectively they have managed two wins, three seconds, one third and a few unplaced horses.

Had you been betting each way, betting 1 point win when 5/1 or under and ½ a point each way when 5/1 or above you would have made a loss of just over 5.5 points. Just betting 1 point to win on every selection would have made you a loss of nearly 8.5 points. The win strike rate has been 13.3% and the average winning odds 2.34/1. Given the historical winning strike rate has been just over 27% and the average winning odds have been just over 4.7/1 the weekly figures are no surprise. For information since launch I have upped my own stakes to £20 a point and I now bet each way as above (I had just been betting £10 to win) My loss for the week stands at -£113.00.

As I stressed in the promotion for One Track Trainers if you cannot handle backing losers, or the odd losing week or month, then this system will not be for you. I will always be honest and upfront about the system’s performance. I will not get annoyed when we have a poor run and equally I will not get over excited when we have the inevitable good run. Of course I would have liked a +20 point winning week but it was not to be. The purpose of this system is to make profits over the long term and I have every confidence that the trainers will deliver. But we will have to be patient.

A handful of members have left already, unhappy with results. For those considering doing the same I would just ask that you give the system a fair chance. You have 52/53 more days in which to paper trade selections risk free and then make a decision whether this is for you. I would hate for you to leave before giving it a fair crack of the whip and then miss out on a load of profit.

Fingers crossed Rae Guest gets the week off to a great start tomorrow and we have a profitable week.

If you have any questions/comments please post them and I will get back to you.

Josh

The Open Meeting – Trends

Below are trends from 5 races across Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. As ever use them as you please. Using my Horseracebase account I have picked out those stats that I find most significant. I use trends to get a shortlist, at which point I then do some further form study/profiling. If there is a horse at the top of the market that is not on my shortlist I will also look at them carefully. Trends are useful to a point, but i would never recommend using them in isolation.

Cheltenham Trends– The Open Meeting
14/11/14
Paddy Power Handicap Chase 2m
6/11 Top 3 Last Time Out
11/11 Age 6-9, even spread based on number of runners. 10 yo 0/11
10/11 Carried 11-07 or less. 17 runners carried more, 1 winner carrying 11-12
11/11 Top 6 in the market
11/11 12/1 or under. 47 horses in the period have gone off bigger than 12/1,only 3 placed
Days Since Run – a mix. 5/11 8-30 days, 6/11 125-365
8/11 had won at least once over the distance (2 miles)
9/11 had won 3 or 4 times over further – although only 1/11 had won over further than 2m3f

Cross Country Chase
9/16 – Top 4 LTO
12/16 – 6/1 or under ISP
2/16 – 6,7,8 year olds, from 84 runners. (8yo 2/39)
14/16 – 9 yo+ includes winners age 12,13 and 14
12/16 – Top three in the market
12/16 ran 8-30 days ago
10/16 had ran over 4m1f+ previously in career

15/11/14
Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3m 3.5f
13/17 Top 6 LTO (9/17 top 3 LTO)
16/17 12/1 or under ISP
13/17 5-8 year olds (9+10 yo 3/66 runners)
All 18 horses to have tried carrying more than 11-10 have lost
14/17 Top 5 in market
8 winners ran 16-60 days ago
8 winners were returning from 121-365 day break.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase
8/17 Won LTO
13/17 Top 4 LTO
11/17 8/1 or shorter (those 11 coming from 59 runners. 6 at bigger odds coming from 208 runners)
17/17 Age 5-9
12/17 Age 5,6,7
17/17 Carried 11-9 or less
12/17 Top 3 in market
15/17 rated 150 or less
8/17 returning 1-30 days
9/17 returning 125-365 days
17/17 had 0, 1 or 2 runs only this Season
13/17 had never won beyond 2m 6f
17/17 had won over at least 2m 3.5f
‘Team’ Pipe have won 7/17 (David with 1 win so far)
Jonjo O’Neill + Nigel T-D have won 2 each in last 7 years

16/11/14
Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

11/17 Top 2 LTO
14/17 Top 5 LTO
15/17 12/1 or under
15/17 Age 4,5,6
4 winners carried 11-12 from 12 runners, 6 winning or placing.
9/17 Top 2 in market
15/17 Top 7 in market
15/17 had 0 or 1 win over distance only.
14/17 had 0 or 1 runs this season. (even split 7-7)

 

I have just read a good article over at www.geegeez.co.uk about the importance of course form at Cheltenham. Suffice to say that ideally you want a horse to have run at the track before. They don’t have to have won, nor placed, but experience of the course is a big positive. Check it out.

This will be it for trends this week.

Results for OTT will be uploaded this Sunday and I will write a short ‘Weekly Wrap’ piece on the Blog on Monday, as well as a look at some ‘Long Distance Jockey’s’

Enjoy your weekend, and as always, comments are welcome. Thanks to all those who have suggested racing books to read. I will be adding them to my shopping list!

Josh

All I want for Christmas is…A Racing Book

All I want for Christmas is…a racing book

I thought I would write a post looking at those racing books (betting based) that I have found most enjoyable and useful in helping me to become a profitable bettor. If you haven’t read some of them before you may wish to add them to your Christmas present list.

I would really appreciate it if you left a comment highlighting any racing books you would recommend to others and with any luck there will be a couple under my Christmas tree!

If you do fancy buying one I suggest searching for it in Google or Amazon.

So, to the books…(and they are in preferential order, 1 being what I would most recommend etc)

Title: Betting For A Living

Author: Nick Mordin

Published: 1992

Without doubt the best racing ‘betting’ book I have read to date and I still refer to it regularly. Yes it was published in 1992 but the majority of the content is still relevant. Chapters discuss the following: speed ratings,the importance of pace and who will take the lead etc, the all-weather, the draw, distance,  class, what the horse looks like (fascinating insight), what the trainer says, fitness, ‘why you should ignore weight’ (superb piece and something I have taken on board), how to bet, how to use systems and most interesting the chapter called ‘What Performance Pattern Does the Horse Fit’. This chapter was my first introduction to ‘horse profiling’ and it’s something I will come back to in future.

Finally Nick puts his approach into practice and talks through many of his bets. His racing and betting diary is fascinating and you learn so much about race analysis. (Predominantly National Hunt)

All in all a must read in my opinion. A superb book that is both very informative and engaging.

***

Title: Winning Without Thinking: A Guide to Horse Racing Betting Systems

Author: Nick Mordin

Published: 2002, revised 2003

My only other book written by Mr Mordin but another must read if you are interested in systematic approaches to betting. In this book he talks about the importance of betting against the crowd, using pedigrees as a basis for systems, exploiting repeat patterns, the effect of weight on performance, using class, a chapter on international racing, the psychology of betting, how to interpret statistics, how hype distorts the betting market and much more. It is packed full of useful information and contrarian thinking which I certainly found enlightening.

***

Title: The Definitive Guide to Betting on the Horses

Author: Racing Post (expert series)

Published: 2011

If you are new to the Sport of Kings and want a book that provides a general, informative, introduction to racing then you could do much worse than read this. In fact even if you are an old hand at the game you may learn something new reading this. Every chapter has a different author including Paul Kealy, Nick Mordin (again!), Tom Segal and others. The book is split into two main sections (‘Finding Your Winner’ and ‘Choosing Your Bet’) and has seven parts covering the assessment of ability, assessing potential (race analysis, breeding, reading the signs), the key variables (draw, pace, knowledge) and then four parts on betting.

All in all another top notch book and a decent addition to anyone’s book shelf.

***

Title: Betting on Flat Handicaps

Author: Jon Gibby

Published: 2005 (third edition)

As you tell from the title this book has a specific focus on flat handicaps and predominantly, but not exclusively, sprint handicaps. In addition to trainer based systems and hose profiling my own betting approach on the flat is to focus on sprint handicaps and I found this book very informative. Many of the themes covered by the chapters are familiar (Horses style of running, draw and class) however there are a few that stand out. The first chapter is about the importance of being different, there is another on Jon’s own selection process and, much like Nick Mordin’s book, there is a chapter on the ‘Theory in Practice’. I really enjoy when the authors talk through their approach on a race by race basis and these chapters can be the most revealing of them all.

If you like your flat handicaps, and sprint handicaps in particular, then I think this is a must read and you are sure to learn something new.

***

Title: Against the Odds

Author: David-Lee Priest

Published: 3rd Addition 2008

This book is for those who would like to understand the complexities of betting and the language used. Its focus is more on the types of bets, numbers and statistics and the core theme that runs through the book is a look at profitable trends and how to bet them. The book is packed full of useful information and the 23 chapters cover everything from the philosophy of gambling, to sex, headgear, trainers, jockeys, fitness, jumping etc. If you are enjoy researching your own systems, angles or ideas this book is sure to spark your imagination.

***

Title: It Can Be Done

Author: Kevin Blake

Published: 2014, The Irish Field

A new book out this year from Kevin Blake who I am sure many of you will recognise from his regular stints on ATR. This is a great little book because you basically get an over the shoulder view of the approach of a Pro-Punter. It is interesting to see someone else’s approach, even more so when their standard stake is a £1000 win bet! Again the best part for me is the betting diary and talking through all of his bets during the course of the Irish Flat Season. What I learnt most from this book was the importance of race reading and learning about what Kevin looks for etc. The chapter on ‘The Importance of Inside Information’ is also reassuring – in essence Kevin thinks this is overblown/overstated part of horse racing. Certainly a lack of what you and I may call inside information is no barrier to punting success.

 

Other Books of Interest

Title: Enemy Number One

Author: Patrick Veitch

Published: 2009

Now this is just an entreating book to read and not one necessarily that you find making notes on. Its great to read about a guy who made more than £10 million from betting on horses in an eight year period. You also learn a lot about his personal approach and what he considers when wagering. However, it is not written from a ‘how to bet’ perspective but it is still a great read. Quite simply it is just a fascinating insight into Veitch’s life of punting, horse ownership, and how he was dragged into the criminal underworld, being forced to go on the run.

***

Title: Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow 20XX-XX

Author: Paul Ferguson

Published: Every year at the moment, 2014-15 has been on sale for a few months.

I have met Paul a couple of times at Aintree and he lives and breathes National Hunt Racing, especially when it comes to unexposed horses that are open to improvement. This book is a labour of love for him and notes on next year’s version have already started. If you like tracking and following the development of National Hunt horses then this book is a must read at the start of every season. There are numerous fascinating chapters, in addition to the horses to follow including a Stable Round up section. The book always has a couple of interviews with jockeys and pundits asking for their horses to follow as well as interesting sections in Irish horses and a round up of the most expensive horses bought at the sales. At £10 it’s a bargain, and even though I rarely bet on non-handicap races, it’s a must read every year for me (and no, I don’t get any cut if you purchase a copy! – if you search on google you should be able to find it)

***

Now it’s your turn…

So, that is my round up of the books that have been most useful and entertaining to me so far.

I know there are many great books that I have yet to discover so if you have read one that you think is a must read please post a comment. It’s about time I added to my own collection!