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December Gold Cup/ ‘Caspian Caviar Gold Cup’ (2pm)

13/15 Top 3 last time out (all winners top 5)

11/15 6 or 7 yo

11/15 8/1 or under

0/15 horses trying to carry more than 11-8, 25 have tried

10/15 Top 4 in market

10/15 ran 16-30 days ago (3/15 8-15 days ago)

12/15 had 2 or 3 runs that season already. No winner from 22 horses making seasonal reappearance

Trainers: This has a ‘big stable’ feel to it. Nicholls has won race 3 times in last 5 renewals, Henderson (3 wins), Jonjo O’Neill (2), NTD (1) Pipes (2) Hobbs (1) Irish Trainers have won 2 of last 12 renewals (Meade + OGrady)

Shortlist

Just focussing on those horses that were top 3 last time out leaves Caid Du Berlais, Darna, Niceonegrankie, No Buts, Barrakilla

Given the strength of horses aged 6 and 7 , and the poor record of horses carrying more than 11-8, that would leave just No Buts and Barrakilla who are also in the top 4 in the market.

Relkeel Hurdle (3.45pm)

8/13 Top 2 last time out

0/13 winners priced over 12/1

13/13 Age 4-7 – age hasn’t been a factor historically, no clear preference. Only 5 horses older than 7 have ran in race.

12/13 Top 3 in market

9/13 ran 16-30 days ago (2/11 121-365 days)

8/13 had just 1 run that season

Trainers: Henderson (3), Jonjo O’Neill (2) and Alan King (2) have won all of the last 7 renewals between them. Nicholls won in 200, King again in 2003. Martin Pipe won once.

Shortlist

The Top 3 in the market trend is very strong. I would use those 3 as a starting point and go from there.

If you used just the rest pattern trend you are left with: Melodic Renezvous; Garde Las Victoire; Lac Fontana; Volnay De Thaix

Good luck whatever you back.

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Another week, another bloody nose.

A loss of 7.88 points on the week if betting win only and a loss of 5.6 points if betting each way. The 12 selections produced 1 winner at odds of 11/4.

The glimmer of light, in another week of gloom, was that 6 of the 12 selections finished inside the top 3. This 50% place strike rate is in line with historical results and if this continues, which history suggests it should do, then things will turn around. There were a few frustrating seconds this week that would have made a big difference to the week but that is how it goes. I am not going to make excuses. We just need some of these placed horses to start getting their noses in front.

It has been a trying and difficult start that none of us would have wanted. I don’t really take any solace from the fact that many other services have also struggled at this time and that we are suffering the inevitable losing run that always happens after the launch of a new service. My bank balance says that I am around £370 down since launch and that is all that matters at the moment.  However, I obviously have faith that things will turn around which comes from a belief in the trainers, the stats and the logic underpinning the method. I thank those that have stuck with it so far.

Unfortunately the nature of trainer systems, and using a portfolio of trainers, means we will suffer the odd run like this. I would have preferred it to happen in 3 or 4 months’ time when we all have some points in the bank. Anyway it is what it is. A 50 point bank, let alone a 100 point is nowhere near coming under threat yet.

So far we have called on the services of 8 of our 16 trainers. Now 4 of the 16 we only back on the Flat Turf so we won’t be seeing any qualifiers from them for a few months yet. However, we have yet to see any All-Weather qualifiers from Ruth Carr, Sir Mark Prescott and Bill Turner. We are also awaiting National Hunt qualifiers from Colin Tizzard.

Overall we have now had 49 qualifiers (average around 600 a year) with 23 finishing in the top 3. While that 47% place strike rate is just below the historical figure at least a lot of the selections are running well, as they should be. The issue is clearly the lack of winners. Only 6 have won to date with all bar one of them under 3/1. This 12.24% win strike rate is obviously well below the historical 27.45% win strike rate. We have had 14 second places. If 7 of those had won results would be more in line with historical results and we would no doubt be in a much healthier position. However, second places do not make us profit.

That is enough looking at history; this approach needs to prove itself live. I can only hope that these seconds and thirds start winning sometime soon. (they will start winning at some point, but the sooner the better!) Hopefully the place strike rate gives you some confidence moving forward that it will turn around.

Fingers crossed (again) for a profitable week ahead.

Josh

p.s you can find updated results in the usual place. Both excel files and PDF are available.

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Aintree

Beecher Chase

12/17 Top 5 Lto (4/17 Pulled Up Lto)

13/17 Aged 8,9,10 (7yo 1/24; 11yo 1/30; 12yo 1/14; 14 yo 1/1)

14/17 Top 9 in the market (fav 3/18 runners,inc joint)

9/17 ran 16-30 days ago ; 2/17 31-60 days ago; 6/17 returning 121-365 days ago)

0/17 returning within 15 days from 65 horses to have tried

15/17 had 0,1 or 2 runs only this season

Trainers with more than 1 winner: Nigel Twiston-Davis (3); P.Nicholls (3); P. Hobbs (2)

Shortlist

Applying all of the trends above, bar position in market and looking at all days rest from 16-60 and 121-365 leaves a rather long shortlist of…

Mr Moonshine, Burton Port, Mon Parrain, Mendip Express, Knock A Hand, Benbens, Shakalakaboomboom, Highland Lodge, Alfie Spinner, Saint Are, Master Neo

I will be waiting until this evening to see a full market and focussing on those above who are top 9/10 in the market.

If you are using the trends above please go through the race yourself to create your own shortlist. You may put more weight on certain factors than others for example.

Grand Sefton Chase

8/11 Top 5 Lto

10/11 Aged 8 or older (11/12 yo 1/16 runners)

0/12 carrying 11-12

6/11 ran 16-30 days ago

4/11 ran 121-365 days ago

Trainers with more than 1 winner: Jim Goldie (2) – 1 of them 66/1 (he has a 66/1 shot this year!)

Shortlist –

Well no horses fit all the trends. If we focus on those 8 or older and remove Rolling Aces who is carrying 11-12 we cut the field in half to…Hunt Ball, Champion Court, Rebel Rebellion, Poole Master, Persian Snow, Benny’s Mist, Orpheus Valley, Too Cool To Fool.

None of that shortlist are returning after 121 days + and all of those remaining that ran in the last 16-30 days didn’t finish in the top 5 last time out. I think the age stat looks strong and there is no point in removing any more from that shortlist with trends.

Given Jim Goldie has won this race twice in recent years, one of which was 66/1, I don’t think I could live with myself if Too Cool To Fool won at 66/1 so he will carry some of my money EW. That may be it for this race for me as having had a quick look through nothing really stands out.

Sandown

Tingle Creek

13/17 Top 2 Lto (2 from 3 runners PU)

12/17 5,6,7 yo

16/17 priced 6/1 or under

15/17 Top 3 in market

Trainers with more than 1 winner: P. Nicholls (8); Mrs John Herrington (2);

Shortlist: This looks to be between the top two in the market, Balder Succes and God’s Own. I am not sure how you can split them really on all their known form given it ties in so closely. I assume people think Balder will improve for his seasonal reappearance and that God’s Own was ‘more forward’ for their last race. God’s Own needs to prove that can handle soft ok as well. An interesting race ahead.

I think I have noticed a trend with the yard of Donald McCain and it could be one that helps pay for Christmas

The Donald McCain yard has been quiet in recent weeks but in the last few days there have been signs that things are about to turn around –and this would fit with recent history. Two weeks ago I opened up my system building software to see if there were any trainers who did well with their chasers in the month of December. More importantly their record in December had to be better than any other month which would indicate it was a month that they targeted and/or had their string ready to fire.

Donald McCain was the only trainer that stood out. His December record with handicap chasers is as follows…

As you can see this is an impressive record. A 26% win strike rate is solid and so is his place strike rate. Most importantly he is operating at 31% above market expectations meaning his horses are going off at bigger prices than they should be – the key to long term profitable betting. What really caught my eye was the record in the last two years. I think he is improving as a trainer and he is probably getting better horses to go to war with.

This appears to be the time to catch his chasers as you can see form his record in every other month over the same time period..

It is the only month where he performs above market expectations and I think we need to keep all of his handicap chasers onside during this month.

So, the rules…

1. Donald McCain
2. Handicap Chase
3. December
4. 14/1 or shorter

And that is it. Now, there have only been a handful of horses priced over 14/1 and although none of them have placed I wouldn’t necessarily be put off but bigger priced horses – but I would advise looking at their form chance.

I don’t think there are any other filters to put in. He has a decent record across a spread of tracks. The only one where he has struggled so far is Wetherby where he is only 1/14. However that is a small sample size and I wouldn’t dismiss his Wetherby runners out of hand just yet.

So, that is it. I have yet to back his December runners with my own money so I am a bit cautious. However all the evidence suggests this is the time of month to catch his chasers and I dare say I will back them systematically, probably starting off with ½ point win bets, although given his decent place strike rate EW betting would be worth consideration.

I will review his performance at the start of January but in the meantime let’s hope he can make us 30 points which would be nice!

OTT Members…

I am not sure if I am comfortably posting these as Bonus selections as 2 of the last 4 years have been losing years and I would like to see one more December before confirming the upward trend. However I have no problem posting them if you would like them.

Josh

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It was a fairly quiet week with nothing to get excited about. We only had 6 selections, with 1 winner (1/2 is rather short but every ½ a point counts), 2 seconds and 3 unplaced horses. It looked for all money that Rouquine Sauvage would win but he looks to possibly be a bridle horse, finding nothing when asked. It will be interesting to see how he goes next time. Aurore Destruval ran well but was no match for Irving. You would like to think she will pick up a few races moving forward, especially against her own sex.

A loss of 4.5 points on the week was disappointing and I for one hope that December is a kinder month. It is no great secret that October and November have been a struggle and I am happy to see the back of them!

Monthly Wrap

Admittedly since going live on the 6^th November it has been a bit of a struggle, but we are only just over 3 weeks into 52 week journey. We are about 14 points down betting win only, whether betting BOG or Betfair SP. Betting EW has resulted in a near 13 point loss. The first 5 days of November (pre-launch) had 3 winners from 7 selections for a 13.5 points profit. Sods Law. Overall a loss of just under 1 point on the month.

There is not too much more to say really. I do often ask myself whether I should have launched at the start of July. If I had we would all be over 80 points in profit. However, I wanted to bet the main part of the flat season with my own money before releasing anything and I make no apologies for that. I hope that the majority of you, having read the manual etc, can see the long term value of this approach and I know I sound like a broken record but those that have faith in this approach will be rewarded. My own confidence comes from the fact that we are dealing with winning trainer behaviour. These trainers have proved themselves over time and will do so again. They are all testing our patience at the moment but I know they are experts at placing their horses and will come good at some point.

Have a good week and as ever comments are welcome,

Josh

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I have looked at a couple of  races tomorrow…

Rehearsal Chase (2.40 Newcastle)

Not much to go on as only have history for last 9 renewals but…

7/9 Top 3 in market

4/9 (from just 11 runners) carried 11-9 or more to victory

2/9 returning within 7 days (from 8 runners)

2/9 returning 31-60 days (from 9 runners) – 5 win and places total.

6/9 had only 1 run that season

2/9 were making seasonal reappearance

Previous Winners.. (Horseracebase stats above only last 9 years)

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (3.00 Newbury)

14/17 Top 3 Last Time Out

17/17 Aged 6-9

12/17 Aged 6 or 7

12/17 Top 4 in market

10/17 Top 2 in market

No real ‘Days Since Run Trends’ however all 8 to be returning after more than 365 days have been unplaced

14/17 had 0 or 1 run only this Season. Wouldn’t necessarily be put off by more however

9/17 had run over at least 3m2f previously in their careers. The other 8 had run over at least 3 miles 1/2 a furlong previously.

Last 17 winners with connections…

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When looking at micro systems and angles, especially those that are trainer based, I like to keep things simple. My usual starting point for looking at a trainer is to look at their overall record in handicaps since the start of 2010, usually with horses priced 14/1 or shorter. From there I can then dig down.

Every now and then you do not need to do too much more digging. You find a trainer that you can blindly back in handicaps and make handsome profits. Today I have such a trainer for you.

I have been tracking her for some time and she is operating 61% above market expectations. Her handicappers are consistently sent off at bigger odds than they should be, especially when they are relatively fit.

The trainer in question is Sue Gardner.

The rules for this micro system are as follows:-

1. National Hunt Racing
2. Handicap
3. 14/1 or under
4. Horse days since run: Between 1 and 120

And that’s it. A very straightforward micro system but very effective as you can see below…

Results (2010-)

47 winners from 184 runners is very respectable and so is the win and place strike rate. Nearly 170 points at Betfair Starting Price in 5 years is nothing short of spectacular for such a simple approach. Without doubt Sue Gardner’s handicappers, when returning within 120 days, are to be kept onside.

In previous posts/guides that have an odds cap I have made the mistake of not showing the results for those horses priced above the cap. As such the results for horses priced over 14/1 are as follows…

So all in all, I wouldn’t really bother with the bigger priced horses, but it is up to you

That is it for this post. I have been and will continue to follow Sue Gardner’s handicappers systematically. As always you are free to do with this information what you please.

***Important for OTT*** I will make this into a Bonus Guide in next couple of days and post selections

Josh

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Well the first of what I know will be many decent priced winners came as a big relief to me personally and I hope to you as well. Lizzie Kelly gave Aubusson a superb ride and it was nice to have a decent winning day.

However it was also a frustrating week with a couple of close seconds which would have made it a profitable week. Cape Cay just got caught in the shadow of the post and came out second best following a photo and Lily Waugh received what I will politely call an indifferent ride. Now I don’t like to criticise jockeys as these men and women literally put their lives on the line for our entertainment. I don’t get angry at a poor ride as everything evens itself out over time but when you have launched a service and know people are betting with their hard earned money it is bloody frustrating! Denis O’Regan is renowned for waiting a bit too long sometimes and he finished like a train with plenty of horse left under him. Unfortunately the winning post had already arrived for the horse in front.

Anyway I don’t plan to dwell on individual performances and although the number of placed horses is annoying at least it’s pleasing that a number are running well.  In terms of the weekly performance there were a total of 16 selections with 2 winners, 5 seconds and 1 third. A 50% win and place strike rate is pleasing and is more in line with historical results. A couple of winners would have made all the difference but hopefully the tide is starting to turn.

It was of course still a losing week and nothing to shout about. Betting 1 point win bets would have lost you 0.75 points and betting each way was a loss of -2.8 points. This brings total losses to 9.2 points betting win only and minus 8.45 points betting each way. Of course it will only take a couple more decent priced winners to put us into profit and then we will be able to kick on. Hopefully that happens this week.

As ever, any questions or comments, positive or negative are always welcome and I will get back to you as soon as possible. Josh

p.s Following a winner today from one bet my new free ‘Pace Wins The Race’ feature is now 7 points in profit after three betting days. You can check it out here  www.racingtoprofit.co.uk

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Good Evening,

Juts a quick note to say that I am going away for the weekend tomorrow morning for friends Birthday. As such there will be no Trends post this weekend, apologies.

Obviously there will be no break in service as I will have full internet access over the weekend and selections will be posted as usual. Having said that selections for Monday’s racing may not be posted until about 2am Monday morning. The weekly results update will also be posted on Monday, as will the Weekly Wrap.

Like you I am frustrated with the current run of cross bar rattling and poor performances but that is racing. I am confident that the winners will soon come but am conscious that current results are getting close to the worse loss of points the system has suffered in nearly 5 months of live betting (19 points was the worst hit during that period, we are currently at -16 points if betting to win only).

If you are using a 100 point bank it should not be anywhere near panic stations just yet but of course I want the system to get into profit as soon as possible. Betting each way is a loss so far of around 10 points. As you know I now bet £20 a point and £10EW when 5/1 or above and although it is no consolation for you I have lost nearly £220 over the last 2 weeks and I would like to back some winners quite soon!

As I have said this approach is for the long run and it will have losing runs, but for anyone joining a new service it is not the start you would like. All I urge is patience and to paper trade if needs be for your risk free trial period.

Enjoy your weekend,

Josh

p.s if you havent done so already you can check out my new ‘pace wins the race’ daily blog here.. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/blog/pace-wins-race-selections-211114/  it started off with a 6/1 winner today. Some of you may find it interesting.

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I have been tracking three jockeys for a while now who all have something in common – they have a superb record in handicap chases that are 3 miles or further. There are a number of reasons why they stand out. Firstly all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also clearly give their horses confidence at their fences. Sound, accurate jumping is key to winning these races. And of course they get the right firepower to go to war with.

Let me introduce the three jockeys to always keep onside when riding over the marathon distances.

1.Paddy Brennan

Rules:-

• Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
• Class 3,4,5
• 12/1 or under

Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. Given his association with Tom George it is no surprise, as you have seen from his record in Handicap Chases. However he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

2.Paul Moloney

Rules:-

• Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
• November-April inclusive
• Class 1,2,3,4
• 20/1 or under

Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. He obviously rides a lot for Evan Williams but he has plenty of outside winnings which keep the profits ticking over. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

3.James Reveley

Rules:-

• Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
• September-April Inclusive
• Class 2,3,4,5
• 20/1 or below

Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and clearly is a superb horseman and a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during the bulk of the main National Hunt season over these marathon trips. The bulk of his rides are obviously for his father Keith, however he gets decent rides for Martin Todhunter (6/17) amongst others.
****

Feel free to use this information as you please. I will be keeping these 3 riders on side when going chasing in the conditions described. These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.