Handicap Hero
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When looking at micro systems and angles, especially those that are trainer based, I like to keep things simple. My usual starting point for looking at a trainer is to look at their overall record in handicaps since the start of 2010, usually with horses priced 14/1 or shorter. From there I can then dig down.
Every now and then you do not need to do too much more digging. You find a trainer that you can blindly back in handicaps and make handsome profits. Today I have such a trainer for you.
I have been tracking her for some time and she is operating 61% above market expectations. Her handicappers are consistently sent off at bigger odds than they should be, especially when they are relatively fit.
The trainer in question is Sue Gardner.
The rules for this micro system are as follows:-
- National Hunt Racing
- Handicap
- 14/1 or under
- Horse days since run: Between 1 and 120
And that’s it. A very straightforward micro system but very effective as you can see below…
Results (2010-)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 184 | 47 | 25.54 | 124.03 | 91 | 49.46 | 67.41 | 169.11 | 91.91 | 52.17 | 55.21 | 1.61 |
| 2014 | 34 | 8 | 23.53 | 19.83 | 13 | 38.24 | 58.32 | 27.3 | 80.31 | 41.18 | 2.4 | 1.67 |
| 2013 | 51 | 9 | 17.65 | 18.75 | 25 | 49.02 | 36.76 | 30.35 | 59.51 | 50.98 | 17 | 1.18 |
| 2012 | 57 | 17 | 29.82 | 34.2 | 32 | 56.14 | 60 | 45.31 | 79.49 | 59.65 | 18.35 | 1.66 |
| 2011 | 26 | 10 | 38.46 | 47.25 | 16 | 61.54 | 181.73 | 60.4 | 232.3 | 65.38 | 21.57 | 2.43 |
| 2010 | 16 | 3 | 18.75 | 4 | 5 | 31.25 | 25 | 5.74 | 35.9 | 31.25 | -4.11 | 1.28 |
47 winners from 184 runners is very respectable and so is the win and place strike rate. Nearly 170 points at Betfair Starting Price in 5 years is nothing short of spectacular for such a simple approach. Without doubt Sue Gardner’s handicappers, when returning within 120 days, are to be kept onside.
In previous posts/guides that have an odds cap I have made the mistake of not showing the results for those horses priced above the cap. As such the results for horses priced over 14/1 are as follows…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Plc(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E |
| 70 | 0 | 0 | -70 | 2 | 2.86 | -100 | -70 | -100 | 2 | 2.86 | -53.88 | 0 |
So all in all, I wouldn’t really bother with the bigger priced horses, but it is up to you 
That is it for this post. I have been and will continue to follow Sue Gardner’s handicappers systematically. As always you are free to do with this information what you please.
***Important for OTT*** I will make this into a Bonus Guide in next couple of days and post selections
Josh
Josh. The Pace selections and The Sue Gardener selections do not seem to be accessible as with the other systems. Couldn’t they be an optional addition for your customers. I have faith in your sound reasoning and research. Isn’t diversification a good thing. dave
Hi Dave,
The pace selections are available on my main ‘free blog’ so everyone can access them, not just OTT members. Go to http://www.racingtoprofit.co.uk for the Pace selections, you will see them to left hand side as you scroll down.
The Sue Gardner selections will ONLY be available to OTT members – however there havent been any yet, but when there are they will be added to the usual place. There is also an exclusive December Trainer angle i will share as well.
Josh