Is December all about Donald McCain?
I think I have noticed a trend with the yard of Donald McCain and it could be one that helps pay for Christmas
The Donald McCain yard has been quiet in recent weeks but in the last few days there have been signs that things are about to turn around –and this would fit with recent history. Two weeks ago I opened up my system building software to see if there were any trainers who did well with their chasers in the month of December. More importantly their record in December had to be better than any other month which would indicate it was a month that they targeted and/or had their string ready to fire.
Donald McCain was the only trainer that stood out. His December record with handicap chasers is as follows…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 95 | 25 | 26.32 | 56.88 | 45 | 47.37 | 59.87 | 78.31 | 87.99 | 16.29 | 1.31 |
| 2013 | 27 | 9 | 33.33 | 30.79 | 14 | 51.85 | 114.04 | 40.3 | 149.26 | 7.83 | 1.59 |
| 2012 | 13 | 6 | 46.15 | 24.38 | 6 | 46.15 | 187.54 | 26.15 | 201.12 | 2.53 | 2.04 |
| 2011 | 14 | 2 | 14.29 | -5.25 | 4 | 28.57 | -37.5 | -4.32 | -30.89 | -5.48 | 0.61 |
| 2010 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 3 | 75 | -100 | -4 | -100 | 3.53 | 0 |
| 2009 | 11 | 1 | 9.09 | -5.5 | 4 | 36.36 | -50 | -5.06 | -46 | 1.86 | 0.48 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | 17.5 | 8 | 57.14 | 125 | 23.11 | 165.05 | 6.03 | 1.59 |
| 2007 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 2.96 | 6 | 75 | 37 | 2.14 | 35.62 | 0 | 1.96 |
| 2006 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | -100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As you can see this is an impressive record. A 26% win strike rate is solid and so is his place strike rate. Most importantly he is operating at 31% above market expectations meaning his horses are going off at bigger prices than they should be – the key to long term profitable betting. What really caught my eye was the record in the last two years. I think he is improving as a trainer and he is probably getting better horses to go to war with.
This appears to be the time to catch his chasers as you can see form his record in every other month over the same time period..
| Month | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E |
| January | 80 | 13 | 16.25 | 1.38 | 32 | 40 | 1.73 | 2.58 | 0.15 | 0.88 |
| February | 80 | 13 | 16.25 | -19.07 | 28 | 35 | -23.84 | -23.36 | -7.95 | 0.79 |
| March | 88 | 10 | 11.36 | -24.34 | 29 | 32.95 | -27.66 | -28.11 | -7.49 | 0.63 |
| April | 77 | 11 | 14.29 | -16.24 | 24 | 31.17 | -21.09 | -8.91 | -12.81 | 0.81 |
| May | 76 | 11 | 14.47 | -25.03 | 22 | 28.95 | -32.93 | -15.11 | -20.17 | 0.73 |
| June | 29 | 4 | 13.79 | -7.62 | 10 | 34.48 | -26.28 | -11.11 | -2.37 | 0.74 |
| July | 32 | 5 | 15.63 | -0.5 | 8 | 25 | -1.56 | 6.38 | -6.5 | 0.9 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12 | -9.5 | 8 | 32 | -38 | -12.56 | -5.07 | 0.59 |
| September | 14 | 2 | 14.29 | -0.12 | 3 | 21.43 | -0.86 | 4.52 | -3.17 | 0.7 |
| October | 88 | 9 | 10.23 | -36.37 | 23 | 26.14 | -41.33 | -26.9 | -17.68 | 0.54 |
| November | 112 | 12 | 10.71 | -34.25 | 25 | 22.32 | -30.58 | -7.24 | -23.7 | 0.64 |
| December | 95 | 25 | 26.32 | 56.88 | 45 | 47.37 | 59.87 | 78.31 | 16.29 | 1.31 |
It is the only month where he performs above market expectations and I think we need to keep all of his handicap chasers onside during this month.
So, the rules…
- Donald McCain
- Handicap Chase
- December
- 14/1 or shorter
And that is it. Now, there have only been a handful of horses priced over 14/1 and although none of them have placed I wouldn’t necessarily be put off but bigger priced horses – but I would advise looking at their form chance.
I don’t think there are any other filters to put in. He has a decent record across a spread of tracks. The only one where he has struggled so far is Wetherby where he is only 1/14. However that is a small sample size and I wouldn’t dismiss his Wetherby runners out of hand just yet.
So, that is it. I have yet to back his December runners with my own money so I am a bit cautious. However all the evidence suggests this is the time of month to catch his chasers and I dare say I will back them systematically, probably starting off with ½ point win bets, although given his decent place strike rate EW betting would be worth consideration.
I will review his performance at the start of January but in the meantime let’s hope he can make us 30 points which would be nice!
OTT Members…
I am not sure if I am comfortably posting these as Bonus selections as 2 of the last 4 years have been losing years and I would like to see one more December before confirming the upward trend. However I have no problem posting them if you would like them.
Josh
Could be worth testing the waters on this one and see how it goes josh? I’m still only betting small stakes mostly altho i’ve placed stronger bets on the bonus systems!
Hi James… yes i think you are right maybe i will track Donald and see how he goes after first week etc.. yes the Bonus systems are doing well but they have been researched with same care and attention as OTT and tap into a trainers habits/behavior in doing well with certain horses etc etc – hopefully they give you some confidence that OTT with turn around!!
Josh
Josh
Another very good piece of analysis – these posts really add value.
Thanks Robin glad you find them interesting. It will be fascinating to see how he goes this December with all the signs that his string are coming to the boil.
Josh
Josh. Please Include the McCain qualifiers. We are grown men. You are simply, with the best will in the world, passing on to us well researched information. Dave