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December Gold Cup/ ‘Caspian Caviar Gold Cup’ (2pm)
13/15 Top 3 last time out (all winners top 5)
11/15 6 or 7 yo
11/15 8/1 or under
0/15 horses trying to carry more than 11-8, 25 have tried
10/15 Top 4 in market
10/15 ran 16-30 days ago (3/15 8-15 days ago)
12/15 had 2 or 3 runs that season already. No winner from 22 horses making seasonal reappearance
Trainers: This has a ‘big stable’ feel to it. Nicholls has won race 3 times in last 5 renewals, Henderson (3 wins), Jonjo O’Neill (2), NTD (1) Pipes (2) Hobbs (1) Irish Trainers have won 2 of last 12 renewals (Meade + OGrady)
Just focussing on those horses that were top 3 last time out leaves Caid Du Berlais, Darna, Niceonegrankie, No Buts, Barrakilla
Given the strength of horses aged 6 and 7 , and the poor record of horses carrying more than 11-8, that would leave just No Buts and Barrakilla who are also in the top 4 in the market.
Relkeel Hurdle (3.45pm)
8/13 Top 2 last time out
0/13 winners priced over 12/1
13/13 Age 4-7 – age hasn’t been a factor historically, no clear preference. Only 5 horses older than 7 have ran in race.
12/13 Top 3 in market
9/13 ran 16-30 days ago (2/11 121-365 days)
8/13 had just 1 run that season
Trainers: Henderson (3), Jonjo O’Neill (2) and Alan King (2) have won all of the last 7 renewals between them. Nicholls won in 200, King again in 2003. Martin Pipe won once.
The Top 3 in the market trend is very strong. I would use those 3 as a starting point and go from there.
If you used just the rest pattern trend you are left with: Melodic Renezvous; Garde Las Victoire; Lac Fontana; Volnay De Thaix
Good luck whatever you back.